CompoundSemi Online - The Original Compound Semiconductor Industry Newspaper

July 12, 2006...When our news editor, Scott McMahan, wrote a guest editorial in this slot last week asking "Where are the LEDs?" following his trek through some local retail chainstores, it caused various readers to comment. One letter, in particular, pointed out that a major barrier for mainstreaming solid state lighting might be the big lighting companies themselves, such as Philips and General Electric. While not necessarily right in some people's estimation, it's logical that these giants would protect their traditional product lines of conventional bulbs, especially the oldest two: incandescents and fluorescents. As companies who make zillions out of replacement bulbs, I imagine an LED bulb that doesn't burn out must present upper management with a dilemma.

Think back. It took decades for Philips, GE and their peers to get halogen into the mainstream retail market. That halogen outmoded other product lines is obvious. It makes sense that they'd suppress the newer technologies as long as possible. It's what they do. SSL is simply next up in their queue. The longer they drag their heels, however, the more opportunities there are for LED upstarts and aggressive systems integrators.

As we in the compound semi and solid state lighting industries know, Philips and GE both have major stakes in solid state lighting, namely, Philips Lumileds in San Jose, California USA (now a wholly owned subsidiary of Philips in the Netherlands) and GE owns 51% of GELcore (Emcore, in Somerset, New Jersey being GELcore's other parent). Both GE and GELcore are based in Ohio. While not at the same level on the supply chain, Lumileds and GELcore are both considered major players in the burgeoning SSL industry, but they might not be as important to their parent companies as they are to their technical communities. To us, Lumileds' and GELcore's people are at the core of the still-fledgling SSL industry. Lumileds' HP roots and GELcore's Emcore roots are full of blue spectrum LED and GaN materials science pioneers.

So why... if Philips owns Lumileds and GE controls GELcore... don't Philips and GE simply ramrod SSL products into the mainsteam market? Actually, GE gave it a noble try early on in the LED lighting game. In the mid to late 1990s, GE matched some of their best razzle/dazzle lighting and marketing people in GELcore with Emcore's blue spectrum LED and MOCVD technical prowess, and came up with some great gimmicks to popularize general lighting with LEDs. The GELcore video, cica 1998, made it sound like you could simply hurry on down to your local hardware store or lighting showroom and have your home equipped in LEDs in no time. For sure your new car would be LED-laden and LED traffic lights were already prolific. Actually, GELcore came out with one of the first white LED nightlight plug-in products, which sold out at my Walmart within weeks. (I probably bought most of them. Haven't seen many more of them since then). And Lumileds' leading edge work was even featured on ABC news as traffic lights quickly transferred over to SSL technology. We all thought our homes would be innundated with LED lights by now. Unfortunately, all we have are a few white fairy lights and some token solar garden and pool lights.

What happened? I think our reader, as referred to above, was absolutely right when he said he'd been informed that the barrier to entry was likely the giants themselves who didn't want to adversely impact their old "Edison" technology lighting businesses. I'd add the caveat that it isn't so much that they don't want to impact their established businesses, but rather that they don't want to impact them too soon. And good, dependable LED-based lighting fixtures are still on the expensive side when compared to conventional lighting fixtures. Yes, you get tremendous energy savings and fresh aesthetic appeal, but getting those messages across takes clever and relentless marketing. Solid state lighting is much like its compound semi brethren: multijunction solar cells, HBT power amps, solid state lasers, UV LEDs, etc.... They're new to their respective end user communities. SSL isn't a fad. The general public needs to be gradually eased into long term adoption.

And most end users go for lower cost over higher quality/increased functionality. Scott visited Walmart, Home Depot and Lowes, i.e. large chain stores touting low cost. If he'd visited the specialty lighting stores on Burnet Road in Austin, he might have found more of what he was looking for... maybe. Newer technologies always appeal first to higher end buyers, who tend to shop at specialty stores, not Walmart. There's also the uncounted installed base. As Color Kinetics, Lumileds, Osram Opto, GELcore, and their counterparts worldwide have demonstrated, there are probably more HB-LEDs fielded for theatrical and architectural lighting than many may realize... especially when you add in all the Asian suppliers.

I think the natural market rollout of LED-based solid state lighting products is probably pretty much on course, and I know Strategies Unlimited's estimations are right on the money (Ref: June 21 news). Selling components to established systems integrators works. LED backlights in TVs are moving well. LED components selling into the autos market continue to do exceptionally well. They've always been in appliances, and judging by the increased brightness levels (too bright in my mind), those are definitely HB-LEDs in my computers. What we need now are LEDs in mainstream products like ceiling fans, porch lights, and retrofits for our favorite existing lamps that can easily be found at any Walmart or do-it-yourself home store, plus all the innovative undercounter, track lights, festoons, etc... that custom makers, like OptoLum are fielding. The leading indicators are there as we see the first announcements from fixture companies that LED lighting installations are happening throughout some trend-setting new housing developments, but it's still being marketed as "an exclusive kind of thing". there will surely be some newcomers arriving with mass market approaches we may not have expected, and I can't wait to see what they come up with.

We don't need a repeat of the HBTs in cellphones, where the precious components our people have slaved to develop become mere throwaways. We need good, lasting solid state lighting components, packages and fixtures. Get it right and they shall buy... something lasting.

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