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FTTP Remains Bright Spot of OFC/NOFEC |
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Commentary & Perspective...
New Ways of Making White LEDs?March 10, 2005...In just the last week, I've had calls from a variety of people new to the industry searching for basic information about the blue spectrum LED field. Especially very bright white LEDs that truly can become an energy efficient replacement for conventional lighting technologies. The calls vary from venture capitalists to representatives of government agencies. Such inquiries are considered as part of our normal workload as a catalyst and clearinghouse for the solid state lighting industry, but these calls are remarkably similar in that the inquiries are directly tied in some way to funding startups that may... or may not... have a better notion of how to make white light out of compound semiconductors. In all cases, the material types used by the companies the inquirers are investigating is not the standard Group III Nitride on an established substrate (sapphire or SiC). Sometimes I can worm the compound combo out of them, but usually not. And in all cases, the companies they mention... if they do... are not names familiar to these pages. That means they're either really stealthy new venture backed startups, a quiet division of a large stealthy company... or they're a professor calling himself a company and seeing if he can score some government contracts to get going. The basic question is generally the same: Does a company taking a totally different route to white LEDs stand a decent chance of commercial success? My answers are beginning to be repetitive as I mull over what's the right answer to that core question. While we pride ourselves on being a welcoming, inclusive community, success is doubtful unless that new idea blends relatively comfortably with the now entrenched way of producing white LEDs. It's taken decades to build a strong Group III Nitride-based LED volume manufacturing infrastructure. There is only now, finally, enough critical mass to handle true success. Failure is easy. You simply dry your tears, dust yourself off, and go on to the next project. It takes an incredible amount of coordinated hard work and great teamwork, however, to sustain success. Nothing will pull down a promising new technology as fast as not being able to meet market demands. That's not the problem right now in the high brightness+blue spectrum LED space. We have enough companies providing excellent product to meet current demands, and there's enough R&D and true innovation backing them up to meet future demand. Significantly disrupting the natural flow of an already disruptive technology isn't likely to happen. Not for some time, and certainly not with the current climate of impatient venture and government funding. I don't see anyone patient enough to wait another 30 years for another basic SSL formula to take over the world. But... there's always the possibility that the alternative idea really is the next great thing. And that next great thing either comes in the form of a natural evolution, or by scientific revolution. And if it is really great, you can bet an established player in the current SSL industry will indeed jump on it... for one of two reasons. Either to lock up the IP as a possible next generation white LED solution beyond GaN (on whatever), or... to gobble up the startup and its IP and kill the idea in its infancy. There have been some wonderful wide bandgap technologies that have come and gone from center stage, having to settle for very niche applications. Diamond and ZnSe are two that come to mind, and when SiC LEDs were replaced by GaN, SiC status was jeopardized. If it wasn't for Cree's ongoing devotion to GaN on SiC for blue spectrum LEDs, that wonderful compound combo wouldn't be shining as brightly and strongly as it is today, and be delegated strictly to esoteric applications in harsh and high power environments. ZnSe and diamond didn't fade from the scene because they weren't technologically worthy. They faded from lack of interest and adequate funding. They never attained the critical mass it takes to become a true commercial success. And remember that in the early 1980s, the compounds tried valiantly to replace silicon with GaAs as silicon itself replaced germanium. Vitesse was originally founded as an all GaAs computer company, a fruitless effort it soon dropped. Alas, you didn't see many all GaAs computers beyond the initial foray by Cray. So if you get some calls exploring this topic, see what's up. And if there really is another way to make white LEDs better, cheaper, faster, etc.., let us know. If the novel idea stands up to peer review and gets properly saluted by more than one major player in the SSL industry (for example, if they publicly put their name to a contract and thereby instantly legitimatize it), we'll all want to know about it. But if it fades away as a fad-like notion and goes the way of diamond and ZnSe... don't be surprised. But if it blends with the current improvement path, it could indeed receive the proper respect and acceptance. If you have news or
views to share about the compound semiconductor, LED or solid
state lighting industries |
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