CompoundSemi Online - The Original Compound Semiconductor Industry Newspaper

December 28, 2003...With the exception of the blue spectrum LED sector, and the handful of key defense contractors and their subs who are directly profiting from the current USA administration's ongoing "war," I doubt anybody working in advanced semiconductors is going to feel badly about saying "good-bye" to the year 2003. Those working in broadband communications are especially glad we're closing the books on what will undoubtedly go down in high tech history as the year we finally hit the bottom after the infamous "Bubble" bust, and started the slow turn upward... back where the sun used to shine. Those still not working at all (due to the incredible number of layoffs from downsizing, bankruptcies, or... in the case of the USA especially, continued belt-tightening measures that necessitate outsourcing and more offshore manufacturing) are really glad 2003 is over. Those of us who have been working virtually for free in enterprises we personally have a stake in, and those who have had to make do with shortened work weeks and/or no raises while carrying progressively heavier loads due to skeletal staffs, joyfully put '03 behind us and look forward to some degree of normalcy. Looking forward to '04, but not clearly knowing what it will bring, I'm reminded of the old '60s slogan that again seems the appropriate new mantra: "Onward... thru the fog."

As we learned at the Outlook for 2004 annual industry conference (and as reported in our Dec. 18th issue) consensus among those in the wireless and opto communication sectors is that the worse is, indeed, over. Of course that prompted a flurry of emails asking if that meant could be interpreted that people are starting to hire again. Keep dreaming, and... think about it. The recovery and rebuild (thus the theme of this year's Outlook) will take time, because "The Downturn" was really, really bad this time. So, surviving companies first have to start to pay themselves by repaying a debt to their surviving employees. Then they have to actually reinstate decent budgets to simply get back to doing business in a preferred manner (as opposed to bare-bones). After that, they can start thinking about once again expanding their product lines and customer base, and... maybe, even beef up R&D once again. That's when they'll consider new hires. Maybe... by mid-2004? We can only hope. In the USA, leaders such as Cree, RFMD and TriQuint will likely be in the point position. After as many years as those three have been taking arrows in the back, they're now tough enough and strong enough to safely follow.

Those focused on the blue spectrum seem to be honestly doing quite well. Have those of you still unemployed done your homework on the wide bandgap semiconductors? If not, it's never too late to get moving in that direction. As has long been known in our inner circles, Group III Nitride development (at all levels of the supply chain) is progressing so well that, collectively, the wide bandgaps are forgone front-runner as the most promising compound semi material types for a number of applications, especially blue spectrum LEDs of all levels of brightness, and as laser diodes and electronic devices. At our Blue 2003 event in Dallas last June, we heard from the brightest of the bright in next gen solid state lighting and lasers. Moral of their story, you really can't go wrong by following the blue spectrum. On top of that, GaN development for electronic applications was clearly the hot topic at the annual Outlook Dec. 15-17th in Dallas, which we'll report more on in the weeks ahead.

So, looking back, our top story of the year was clearly the Blue Spectrum Success. So successful, in fact, that we're taking the show devoted to that sector on the road. We're expanding the focus even more, and the official title of the '04 meet, slated for May 10-12 in Hsinchu, Taiwan is: Blue 2004: Advanced LEDs & Lasers. As we learned at Blue 2003, things are changing, and not so quietly anymore. Emerging from laboratory curiosity, the blue spectrum technologies have become a completed "industry". So, as the follow-on to our successful Blue 2003, we're adding to the blue spectrum big picture with updates and information on some of the up and coming advanced LED technologies that are clearly going to change the industry. And now that things are heating up under the blue laser standards arena for next gen LDs and hard discs, what's happening in advanced laser diodes takes a fresh, potentially very high volume twist. We'll have the agenda for Blue 2004 up soon, but all you need to do is talk to anyone who attended Blue 2003, and you'll understand why you need to be there.

The 2003 shifts in epitaxy suppliers and resulting marketing strategy will also go down in compound semi history as a very important turning point for our field. The shift was most dramatically illustrated when Veeco purchased Emcore's long-established TurboDisc MOCVD line of epi tools. (See End of an Era in MOCVD). 2004 will mark the first ever year when one company, Veeco, can offer the industry their choice of either MBE and MOCVD tools. Veeco's marketing ace, Jim Trevis cleverly illustrated this, symbolically, when giving each Outlook attendee a two-bottle gift pack of private label wine...one bottle of white wine, one bottle of red, with the message that the industry could now "have it either way." Another change within the MOCVD community is a feeling of freshness and community openness, led by Aixtron, along with Nippon Sanso and Nippon EMC expanding their commercial operations to the USA. And with the Dec. 18th announcement just out of Japan (ref: Forbes.com coverage) that Nippon Sanso will be merging with Taiyo Toyo Sanso, Nippon Sanso's role in MOCVD may start to strengthen. (Stay tuned for details after the holidays...) For the time being, Veeco and Aixtron are the major epi equipment players, and where they head, others are likely to follow. Aixtron's traditional good work in addressing the Oxides and Veeco's initiative on clustering machines of various types is the type thing we'll see more of as our field expands and influences other advanced semiconductor technologies beyond just the compounds. Clearly, we're converging with the advanced silicon world, not only with a variety of other base material types, but with an uplifting, cohesive industry-wide message that the compounds can help lead silicon up and out of their traditional boxes.

"Advanced Semi's" in 2004? Yes. It began with SiGe and SiC, but since those two material types had two names, we simply embraced them as "compounds." But... the adoption of those two material types by mainstream silicon users illustrates that we don't have to position ourselves against vanilla silicon anymore. And as we'll likely see in 2004, we're probably not going to remain an isolated compound semi community. With fields like nanotechnology, quantum wells, and MEMs finally moving into the mainstream, and with such a rich variety of laser technologies coming onboard, we'll likely all feel more comfortable thinking of our field more generically as "Advanced Semi" based. In fact, if you type in "advancedsemi.com" into your browser... guess where you go? (In case you're thinking "Why just 'semi' instead of its full name 'semiconductor'?" Just try typing that whole name accurately and quickly into your browser and you too will quickly shortcut to "semi").

So, say Hello to 2004. My prediction is that it will be a year of sensible expansion, a leveling of many playing fields, and closer cooperation that brings with it opportunities for more talented people that continue to advance the field of semiconductors as only our kind of professionals can... through continued innovation, improved manufacturing practices, and every more clever and environmentally friendly systems. Happy New Year and the best of luck to everyone in 2004.

Japan Merger Involves Nippon Sanso, Matheson Tri-Gas, and Taiyo Toyo

Mars Landing Marks "Return" of NASA

Professors Holonyak & Feng Shed Light on Next Gen Transistors

5 European Companies Form EPIC Photonics Consortium

Vitesse Acquires Austin Texas DSP Supplier for $66 Million

Japanese LED Majors Collaborate on Initial Industry Standards

NEC Details Progress on HD DVD Development

Japanese LED Majors Collaborate on Initial Industry Standards

Goodbye '03 Hello '04