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Editorial: Driving down the costs - Part 1
... One of the common questions we get from those outside of the "chip head" side of the industry is, "Why don't they just make the LEDs (and/or solar cells) cheaper? It can't be rocket science." Well, actually, part of it is, or nearly so, and others parts are driven...
Jump down to the full story
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Features:
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Strategy Analytics Predicts GaN Use to Grow in RF and Power Management Applications Over Several Years
CompoundSemi News StaffApril 28, 2010...Market analysis company, Strategy Analytics (SA) predicts that
deployments in electronic warfare, next-generation radar and covert communications will represent nearly 50% of the $376M market for GaN microelectronic components in 2014. SA reports that adoption of GaN components in wireless infrastructure has been sluggish.
Asif Anwar, director of the Strategy Analytics GaAs and Compound Semiconductor Service, suggests that power management will be an important new market for GaN microelectronic components. Such devices include: SMPSs (switched-mode power supplies), DC-DC converters, and DC motor drives found in home appliances, electric vehicles, industrial automation systems, telecommunications equipment, and electric lawnmowers.
“Much depends on the success of new entrants targeting applications in power management,” said Asif Anwar. “After the initial launch of these products in the opening quarter of 2010, we expect a number of major suppliers to enter the market over the next two years, prior to significant RF deployments in wireless infrastructure from 2012 onwards.”
The “GaN Microelectronics Market Update 2009-2014” report, details the increasing impact that GaN semiconductors will have on power management applications. The complementary report, “GaN Device and Material Vendor Summary,” reveals the strategies of companies supplying GaN-based products for military and commercial applications. Both reports are available for download now at http://tinyurl.com/sa00868.
Steve Entwistle, VP of the Strategy Analytics Strategic Technologies Practice, commented, “GaN has already cemented its place in the optoelectronics market, and is now emerging as a key enabling technology for the commercial microelectronics sector."
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First Solar to Acquire NextLight Renewable Power, LLC
CompoundSemi News StaffApril 28, 2010...First Solar of Tempe, Arizona USA, reports that it will be acquiring NextLight Renewable Power, LLC after the companies entered into a definitive agreement. First Solar will gain a 1,100 megawatt (MW) solar project pipeline for NextLight Renewable Power, a leading developer of utility-scale solar projects in the southwestern United States. First Solar will purchase the company in a $285 million all cash transaction that is expected to be completed in the third quarter of 2010, pending the satisfaction of certain closing conditions specified in the merger agreement.
The transaction represents another step in First Solar's expansion in the U.S. utility-scale power market, which began in 2007 with the acquisition of Turner Renewable Energy and continued with the acquisitions of solar project pipelines from OptiSolar in 2009 and Edison Mission Group in 2010.
Of the acquired 1,100 MW solar project pipeline, 570MW (AC) is under signed power purchase agreements with western utilities. First Solar indicated that this increases its contracted photovoltaic (PV) solar project pipeline to 2,200MW. The acquired project pipeline from NextLight also includes 530MW (AC) of additional PV projects in various stages of development. NextLight's projects reportedly ranging in size from 30MW to 290MW. They are largely located on private land.
"NextLight has assembled a project pipeline that very much complements First Solar's project portfolio. We are looking forward to having the highly experienced NextLight team join First Solar," said Rob Gillette, First Solar chief executive officer.
LED Epiwafer Producing Joint Venture Partners from Mainland China and Taiwan Place Large Order for Aixtron MOCVD Tool
LIGHTimes News StaffApril 27, 2010...In a sign of the growing cooperation between mainland China and Taiwan, Formosa Epitaxy (FOREPI) of Taiwan is taking part in a joint venture with Jiang Su Can Yang of mainland China for the production of ultra high brightness LEDs.
Jiang Su Can Yang reportedly placed a large order for more more Planetary and Showerhead HB-GaN LED MOCVD tools from Aixtron in the fourth quarter of 2009. The Planetary Reactor systems were ordered in a 11x4 inch configuration, and the Close Coupled Showerhead tools were put in a 31x2 inch configuration for the order that will be delivered between the second and the fourth quarter of 2010. Aixtron indicated that its local support team will commission the new reactors at the new FOREPI purpose-built facility in Jiang Su province, PR China.
Dr. Frank Chien, CEO FOREPI commented, “We have aggressive plans for our joint venture in Jiang Su province, PR China with a total of fifty systems to be in place within the next three years. The excellent performance we have received from our existing Planetary and Showerhead systems from Aixtron at FOREPI in Taiwan have translated directly into high quality product performance, yield, and cost of ownership. Specifically, the new reactors in this latest order are destined not only for a new facility but also a new application research topic. Therefore, as these plans unfold the new joint venture in China will allow us to be very close to many of our customers increasing production capacity and to meet their future needs in new device technology. Working in partnership with Aixtron support team we can bring these tools onstream quickly ramping up HB GaN LED epiwafer production in response to strong local market demand.”
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MiaSole to Supply CIGS Modules to Phoenix Solar After Signing Multi-Year Framework Agreement
CompoundSemi News StaffApril 28, 2010...MiaSole will now be a supplier of copper indium gallium diselenide (CIGS) thin film solar cells to Phoenix Solar AG, a photovoltaic integrator, after the companies signed a framework agreement.
In the context of this agreement, which runs until 2013, Phoenix Solar has ordered an initial 4.5 MWp of thin-film modules from MiaSole for delivery in the second quarter of 2010.
The framework agreement includes a recycling warranty where required by regulation or financing: At the end of the solar modules' lifetimes, the customer has the option of having MiaSole recycle or reconditioned them.
MiaSole says its production process applies different layers of copper, indium, gallium and selenium on a metal foil. This substrate is then divided into cell-like sections and laminated between two hardened glass plates. The frameless glass-glass module can be used for roofs or ground-mounted systems and can withstand high wind and snow loads. According to MiaSole, the process allows for almost any module shapes to be manufactured, increasing the potential for cost savings. MiaSole points out that CIGS has achieved the highest covnersion efficiency among all commercial thin-film technologies in the laboratory . Miasole module has an efficiency of 10.5, and a higher efficiency product is to be shipped at the end of 2010.
"We welcome MiaSole to our group of strategical suppliers with whom we work closely to extract maximum synergy effects as a means of continuously driving down system costs," said Manfred Bachler, Chief Technology Officer at Phoenix Solar AG.
Seoul Optodevice and Sanan Optoelectronics to Boost HB-LED Production with New Veeco MOCVD Systems
LIGHTimes News StaffApril 27, 2010...Veeco Instruments of Plainview, New York USA reports that Seoul Optodevice Co., Ltd. (SOC) of Korea has selected Veeco's TurboDisc(R) K465i gallium nitride (GaN) Metal Organic Chemical Vapor Deposition (MOCVD) System to expand their manufacturing capacity of high brightness LEDs. Veeco notes that addition to orders placed in 2009, SOC placed a multi-tool order during the second quarter of 2010. All the tools are currently scheduled for shipment during 2010.
Sanan Optoelectronics Co. Ltd., a manufacturer of full color LEDs in China, has placed a large multi-tool order for Veeco's K465i and E475 TurboDisc Metal Organic Chemical Vapor Deposition (MOCVD) Systems. The equipment is reportedly for Sanan's new LED fab in Wuhu, Anhui Province for the manufacturing of high brightness LEDs. Veeco booked the order earlier this month.
According to Veeco, the K465i system has wavelength uniformity and excellent run-to-run repeatability. Additionally, Veeco says that the system is very capital efficient, producing many good wafers per day for each capital dollar. Veeco says that the K465i is easily tuned for fast process optimization on wafer sizes up to 8 inches.
Seyong Oh, Ph.D., CEO of SOC, commented, "This new order ensures that we can continue to increase output of our market-leading HB LEDs with the industry's highest yields. Seyong Oh added, "We believe that Veeco's MOCVD systems offer the lowest cost-of-ownership tools on the market, and their support is excellent." Drive to Make Consumer Products Smarter About Energy Consumption and California Smart Electronics Act Bill
Scott McMahan, SSLightingDesign News EditorApril 26, 2010...California, a U.S. state which is often at the forefront of establishing environmental and conservation laws and regulations, is home to a Representative Michael Honda of the state legislature. Michael Honda, a State House Representative of California District 15 introduced a bill to make consumer electronics smarter in terms of energy consumption and conservation. The bill called, the "Smart Electronics Act" H.R. 5070. which was introduced last week, hopes to add energy consumption management methods and technologies to individual consumer electronic devices.
Marvell Semiconductors supports the bill. Sehat Sutardja, Chairman, president and CEO of Marvell Semiconductors, Inc. stated, "Every year, people around the world consume energy from billions of new electronic products—from smartphones, to tablet computers to televisions. All our efforts to make energy consumption more efficient through 'smart grids' and 'smart meters' are wasted if we still have dumb products. The Smart Electronics Act is landmark legislation that will ensure that those new products are more energy efficient and earth-friendly, reducing our resource demands and carbon footprint for generations to come."
From lights that stay on when no one is around, to DSL and WiFi routers that are always on, to to clock's, stereos, microwaves, and other consumer electronics, all these devices can put a invisible drain on electric power consumption. Many of them do so even when in the "Off" state. Many devices are obviously "dumb" electricity hogs, or at least "dumb" electricity sippers. Content continues for LIGHTimes SecondPage members... CPV Company, Amonix Secures $129.4 Million Private Equity Financing
CompoundSemi News StaffApril 21, 2010...Amonix, Inc. a maker of concentrator photovoltaic (CPV) solar systems, reports that it has raised $129.4 million Series B financing round led by Kleiner, Perkins, Caufield & Byers.
Other participants in the round include Adams Street Partners, Angeleno Group, PCG Clean Energy & Technology Fund, Vedanta Capital LP, New Silk Route, The Westly Group, and current investor MissionPoint Capital Partners. Amonix will reportedly use the funding speed up deployments of its CPV systems and expand the company's manufacturing capacity. While much funding has been loaned to many companies which have entered the thin film CIGS solar market, considerably fewer have ventured into the CPV solar market.
Amonix previously raised $25 million in Series A funding from Goldman Sachs Group and MissionPoint Capital, and also received $15.6 million in grant funding through the Department of Energy Solar America Initiative (SAI). In 2010, Amonix received $9.5 million in stimulus funding as part of the federal Recovery Act’s Advanced Energy Manufacturing Tax Credit. The funding from the Recovery Act’s Advanced Energy Manufacturing Tax Credit expected to lead to 269 new clean energy manufacturing jobs in Nevada and 167 new jobs in Arizona.
“Amonix CPV systems have emerged as the lowest cost solar technology for sunny and dry environments,” said Ben Kortlang, Partner of Kleiner, Perkins, Caufield & Byers. “Developers and utilities are choosing Amonix systems because of their 15-year track record in the field, high reliability, ease of deployment and industry-leading efficiency.”
Amonix News Release Oregon State University Researchers Develop Continuous Flow Microreactor for Making Absorbers for Thin Film Solar Cells
CompoundSemi News StaffApril 20, 2010...Engineers from Oregon State University and Yeungnam University in Korea have written an article appearing in Current Applied Physics, about a system that performs chemical bath deposition to produce absorbers for thin film solar cells. Chemical bath deposition was actually developed more than a hundred years ago, but it was difficult to control the thickness, and the depletion of reactants also limits the achievable thickness.
The OSU engineers invented a continuous flow microreactor to deposit "nanostructure films" on surfaces. This technology reportedly addresses some of the issues with chemical bath deposition, and the engineers expect that eventually the process may be more commercially viable.
“We’ve now demonstrated that this system can produce thin-film solar absorbers on a glass substrate in a short time, and that’s quite significant,” said Chih-hung Chang, an associate professor in the OSU School of Chemical, Biological and Environmental Engineering. “That’s the first time this has been done with this new technique.”
According to Chang, more work is needed on process control, testing of the finished solar cell, improving its efficiency to rival that of vacuum-based technology, and scaling up the process to a commercial application.
More advances such as this are expected to emerge from the new Oregon Process Innovation Center for Sustainable Solar Cell Manufacturing, a $2.7 million initiative based at OSU, which will include the the work of about 20 faculty from OSU, the University of Oregon, Portland State University and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.
Oregon State University News Our news features are reported
by the CompoundSemi News staff writers.
For submissions or content suggestions, you can contact us using
editor -at - compoundsemi.com
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Commentary & Perspective...
Driving down the costs - Part 1
Tom Griffiths - PublisherApril 29, 2010...One of the common questions we get from those outside of the "chip head"
side of the industry is, "Why don't they just make the LEDs (and/or solar
cells) cheaper? It can't be rocket science." Well, actually, part of it
is, or nearly so, and others parts are driven by the economics including "economies
of scale" that everyone is always so knowledgeable about. Make no mistake,
we'll get there, but it is a process of innovation that will follow an evolutionary
path, helped along with some occasional breakthroughs. In the first of this two-part
commentary, we'll cover what's happening to move those costs down at the bottom
and in some detail at the top of the chain, with Part 2
aimed at the middle and fleshing out that view from the top a bit more.
Materials and reactors... It all starts, not surprisingly, at the bottom.
For those coming from a higher level of the food chain, the simplest analogy
the industry offers is that making semiconductors is like making a pizza. You
have a crust, called a substrate, that everything is layered on. Then comes
the sauce, which is a blend of just the right main ingredients, and little added
"spices" that make it unique to the particulars of the kind of pizza
you're making. That sauce is the "epitaxial layers" or simply "epi".
In this case, you cook it while you add the secret ingredients that make up
the sauce, and what you get at the end is an "epi-wafer". Some of
the ingredients manufacturers blend include gallium, indium and arsenic (called
"source metals"), along with other ingredients, which are basically
vaporized and then showered very precisely over the sapphire or silicon-carbide
substrate in big things called epitaxial reactors. The most common of the volume
production techniques is to use MOCVD, or metal oxide chemical vapor deposition.
Taken one word at a time, the name is actually pretty sensible.
Those machines are not cheap, running probably $1.5M to $2M+ each, nor are
they simple. They use a lot of electricity and take a fair amount of time to
get the layers just right. The rocket science in the machine itself is how to
get exactly the right amount of everything even blended, across the whole substrate,
on multiple substrates at a time, to tolerances in the range of hundredths of
a millimeter. The objective is uniform coverage that minimizes the "defects"
which may be holes, or cracks, or shortage or overages of elements in the material
that's supposed to be there. How well you do at this step will set the stage
for the overall yield, or "percentage of good devices" you get from
a wafer. More is better, since you go to all the trouble, time and expense of
getting the materials on there, you want every square millimeter to be useful.
The reactors take time to do their job, take time to finish one run and set
up for the next, and also need maintenance (as you can imagine, flowing a bunch
of hot metals at high pressure take their toll on the equipment). There is also
a need to purge out anything that's not part of the formula for any particular
run, so changing from one color LED, or efficiency level of a solar cell, to
another, takes time to clean the previous formula's leftovers out.
Improvements are happening, and while incremental, they are noticeable. A few
years back, at one of our Blue conferences in Taiwan, currently the larger of
the "Big 2" when it comes to our world of non-silicon epi-reactors,
Aixtron, was sharing the migration path
to larger wafer sizes. In the simplest context, edges are useless for putting
devices on, and the larger the wafer, the lower the ratio of "useless"
edge to "useful" interior. A move from 2-inch to 4-inch, and then
4- to 6-inch wafers can provide a substantial increase in the yield per square
millimeter from each run if (big if) you can maintain the uniformity. Veeco
has made a big push recently to clearly communicate its intention to drive the
fabrication costs, from the substrate through a device ready to packaged, down
by a factor of 4 by 2015. According to Jim Jenson, Veeco's VP of Marketing for
their MOCVD business, these reactors, and their accessories, currently make
up about 50% of the capital expense of an LED fab. Their model K465i, introduced
in January, has brought in a new approach to the deposition nozzle (technically,
their "uniform flow flange") that has enabled a whole bunch of things
to get better all at once. Jensen claims that their customers have seen yield
improvements from what has traditionally been in the mid-70% range to something
more in the 90's with this update. That represents just a yield-based cost reduction
of 20-25%. Yield improvements ripple through the whole LED manufacturing process,
as a higher percentage of good devices means that for the same amount of work
at each step (such as fabrication of the chips and testing), more LEDs get produced.
Changes to the line have also shortened the time it takes to get a new reactor
up to speed, with recent results being customers having being able to take delivery
of one of the reactors, and fully qualify their process on it in just 2.5 months.
LEDs, the other rocket science... It wasn't that long ago that packaged
"lighting quality" LEDs were running at $10 for 100 lumens, or 10-cents
per lumen (remember, blue and white weren't commercially available until around
2002/2003). Announcements in the last few months have shown us 2-cents per lumen
(Cree), then 1.5-cents (Bridgelux), and most recently less than 1-cent for warm
white (Intematix, part of today's news). It's assured that Philips, Osram, Nichia
and others out there aren't standing pat at 10-cents per, they just didn't happen
to specifically promote the price in the their announcements. That's a factor
of 10 decrease in something like 5 years. We'll discuss what's driving that
in the next installment of this commentary.
Supporting components... Suffice it to say in Part I here that there's
room for improvement in both drivers (which feed and control the LEDs) and power
supplies (which feed the drivers). The capable and reliable ones aren't cheap,
especially when it comes to the power supplies.
Integrated lamps and luminaires... When do we get a $5 LED lightbulb?
Maybe never, but not because it can't be done, but rather because it won't make
sense to. At some point, a product becomes "cheap enough" that mass
market adoption proceeds simply because it is a better solution than what existed
before. One of my continuing favorite examples to evaluate some of what is happening,
and what we think will happen in this industry, is the progression of the PC
market. Introduced in the early 1980's, they started out as $2000 tools, and
$1000 toys. You had to really need one for business at $2000, and most mid-sized
or larger companies were doing just fine on the "cost per terminal"
with their existing minicomputers. Small businesses had nothing in the way of
a computer, and couldn't afford the $50,000 to $100,000 or more for their few
employees who would benefit. $2000 for the PC, plus another few thousand for
what was likely custom software, was way better than paying an extra accountant
$30K a year (back then) to do the math on paper. As the business-level machines
came closer to $1000, the 20-50 seat installations began to make sense as well,
and massive adoption proceeded. Later, $500 PCs put them in most of our homes,
but did you notice, they didn't keep heading on down to $300, or less (other
than rare deals, so super-strippers)? The distribution channel (retailers) couldn't
make the money they needed at that kind of price, and having PCs in every consumer
electronics store drove far more sales than a lower price (by mail order) every
would. They hit the value point at $500 and have stayed there, with features
and capabilities being added, rather than prices proceeding lower.
We can expect to see much the same approach in LEDs, and interestingly, there's
a bit of a challenge picking what that number might be. We'll explore some of
what is driving that for replacement lamps ("bulbs") and luminaires
in the next installment. (Continue to Part 2)... If you have news or
views to share about the compound semiconductor, LED or solid
state lighting industries
contact our Publisher, Tom Griffiths
His direct tel in Austin is +1-512-257-9888
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