Lux Research Predicts Thin-Film Technology to Reach 28 percent of Solar Market in 2012
Source/Type: Reported News

Author: CompoundSemi News Staff

July 3, 2008... Lux Research has released a report outlining the increasing market penetration of thin-film solar technology. The company points out that the photovoltaic market has had many years of strong growth led largely by crystal silicon. The company’s report contends that thin-film solar technology has reached what economists call critical mass. According to the company, thin-film solar including amorphous silicon, cadmium telluride, and copper indium gallium diselenide (CIGS) will make up 28 percent of the solar market with $19.7 billion in revenue in 2012.

Lux research predicts that thin-film silicon technologies from turn-key vendors will be ramping up production during the second half of 2008. Cadmium telluride (CdTe) module producers such as First Solar, and startups including Calyxo and Primestar will also have aggressive ramps. The company contends that CIGS module manufacturers are reaching the cusp of technology viability.

The report predicts that the growth rate for thin-film solar technology will become more robust during the second half of 2008. The company predicts that clear winners and loser will emerge from the maelstrom of technological development with over 100 companies offering thin-film solutions with mostly unproven and undifferentiated technology and high demand.

“CdTe module manufacturing costs are less than one third that of crystalline silicon, and the new amorphous silicon turn-key lines by Applied Materials and Oerlikon promise half the cost to start with further declines in the future,” said senior analyst Michael LoCascio. “These technologies will be the first choice for the burgeoning utility sector, squeezing out incumbent technology.” Lux Research News Release

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