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Source/Type: CompoundSemi Online -- Compound Semiconductor Supply Chain News - Editorials

What's Happening?
Author: Jo Ann McDonald, founding editor

April 23, 2008... When your trusty laptop crashes and heads for the recycle bin, and days later your backup desktop decides to have an attack and has to go to the computer doctor, and... on top of that, your landline phones start to malfunction and you've given your cellphone to your spouse because your spouse needs it more than you do, its amazing how pretty soon all desire for electronic communication seems to stop. Even the usual blare of the television set seems unappealing. Back online again (however reluctantly), one simply reaches a point where one has to catch up with at least the compound semi industry news.

All the above actually happened to over the last few weeks, thus it's been extremely quiet in our home-on-the-range Texas "office." As a result, I've spent much more time out on the ranch than usual, where our Texas bluebonnets abound and everything's as green as Ireland during our brief but beautiful Spring. After the first few days, I must admit that the absence of communication devices didn't bother me at all. Quite the contrary. But when I finally got back up and running, and started looking around my usual CS industry online haunts, I was amazed how much had occurred in our industry over such a relative short period of time. I found Emcore's CPV deals with China and communications acquisitions from Intel, to be especially interesting because, like so many others who have been linked in one way or the other to that rather unique company over the years, I've been more than a bit curious about where old Emcore was headed these days.

A scan of the general news was truly uplifting. Lots of progress. Lots of players. Possibly too many players when it comes to the wide bandgap (WBG) electronics sector. At least that's what I read between the lines in the guest editorial our good friend Tom Hausken wrote for our mid-April editorial. (Do I sense the "IC" phase on our horizon? "IC" in this case standing for Industry Consolidation?) If you didn't read Tom's editorial, it's a must that you do. The title is Widebandgap Electronics - The "Good" Kind of Challenges. In case you don't know him personally, or weren't interviewed by him for his most recent study, Tom's the Director of Components Practice for Strategies Unlimited and considered an expert on the WBGs in particular and the communications sector in general. I thought his editorial was excellent, and I want to thank him again for filling in for me while I was in my communications blackout. [By the way, some people run the word "widebandgap" all together, some separate "wide" from the rest. I noticed that Tom does it one way in his editorial, another in his study. Me? I take the shortcut and use "WBG".]

What Tom didn't do is hype his latest Strategies Unlimited report... which was the underlying reason he did the editorial. So I'll hype it for him. The title of this latest update is Wide Bandgap Electronics: Technology Trends and Market Forecasts - 2008 and clicking on that title will take you to SU's site where you can peruse the table of contents for this "must have" 300 pager and order a copy. The pricetag of $4,250 may seem steep if you haven't ever read one of SU's major reports, but trust me, it's a bargain. And possessing a copy will not only make you incredibly smarter, but if you're in the WBG business, it will surely make your WBG forays more successful. In it, you'll see confirmation that GaN-based electronic devices are finally truly commercial, taking perhaps longer that we'd hoped to follow the success of GaN-based LEDs and lasers.

WiMAX base station apps are finally looking real, and the study offers genuine meat on application trends and pricing. But the most interesting feature of this updated study is that it offers a model for projecting future prices with three possible scenarios. One scenario assumes that breakthroughs in epitaxy quality lead to one pricing path and some volume applications. Another assumes a more moderate pricing path, with some selective successes. A third assumes that pricing will continue more or less as the status quo, with only moderate growth but lucrative niche products. If, after you read and compare the three scenarios and have something to say publicly about their prospects, feel free to submit to me a follow-up guest editorial espousing your opinions. It's an important topic and one that continues to deserve attention.

The next topic that caught my attention was our upcoming BLUE 2008 conference in Taiwan. Who could miss it. It's blasted and hotlinked all over all of our popular CS-related industry resource sites! [Speaking of shortcuts, you can easily remember how to access the conference site by simply going to "BlueTaiwan.com". We're very much into easy access and shortcuts here at CompoundSemi Online Inc.!] This is our 6th annual BLUE event, which kicks off with a "beer bust," compliments of Epistar, on Tuesday evening, May 6th, at the Ambassador Hotel in Hsinchu. The conference itself begins bright and early on Wednesday morning at 8am and runs through Thursday late afternoon, May 8th. My partner and publisher, Tom Griffiths, has again put together an incredible lineup of speakers. Take a look at he agenda and see for yourself what he and our three co-chairs have in store. I'd like to personally thank those three outstanding industry leaders for their time and assistance: Dr. Yi-Jen Chan, Vice President & Gen'l Director of ITRI Electronics & Opto Research Labs; Dr. Bernd Schulte, Chief Operating Officer of Aixtron; and Dr. Robert Walker, who now serves as a Principal at Sierra Ventures having successfully put BridgeLux on the international LED-maker map.

Lead keynoters for BLUE 2008 is Strategies Unlimited's Director of Opto-Electronics Practice, Dr. Robert Steele, deemed the premiere industry forecaster for the high brightness LED and solid state lighting (SSL) industry. Bob will delve into the current market trends for LEDs and their applications, backed up by the real data that consistently has made a difference in everyone's business planning. The title of Bob's talk just before lunch on day one, Wednesday, May 7th is, simply: World Market Overview and Opportunities. What he has to share is far from simple, however. And prior to Bob's keynote will be a report from another of our industry's top analysts, Dr. Asif Anwar, Director of GaAs and CS Technologies at Strategy Analytics. Title of Asif's talk is Epi Material and Laser Diode Market Update. And conference co-chair Bob Walker weighs in on this section with an update on Green Technologies. Many will remember that Bob Walker authored the classic Asian LED market study for Strategies Unlimited. At BLUE this year, now as a venture capitalist at Sierra Ventures, Bob's talk is titled Green Technologies - An Investor's Viewpoint of the Opportunities and Pitfalls.

Our second keynoter for BLUE 2008 and in the staring role is the extraordinarily, one of a kind, highly personable (and often amusing) Michael Lebby, President of OIDA, the international Optical Industry Development Association, which is based in Washington DC. If you haven't ever heard Michael (the man in black) speak, you're in for an incredible treat. You'll also learn while you laugh. Michael's talk at the end of Day 1 of this outstanding two day conference is titled, The Next Decade - New Opportunities From Solid State Lighting. Whereas most talks are about the here and now... and how we got here, Michael will focus on the future and share his unique and intriguing thoughts on future opportunities for solid state lighting. He's a true visionary, and you'll want to be there in person.

So if you've been in tune with what's happening lately... or not (like me with my communications meltdown) I'm sure you'll agree that the near and longterm future, indeed, is starting to look as bright and robust as the devices our incredible CS industry helps create. On behalf of our co-chairs, keynoters, and all the other speakers and sponsors that will be attending BLUE 2008, register now to attend and get connected in ways that only by personally attending can accomplish. That way you'll be sure to be part of that bright future.

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