Fiber to the Premises will result in a $3.2 Billion U.S. Market by 2009
Source/Type: Company News Releases

August 23, 2004... PROVIDENCE, Rhode Island USA — For more than fifteen years fiber-to-the-home (FTTP) deployments have been punctuated by various trials but have never gained traction … until now. In its new report, Fiber To The Premises in The United States: The Promise of Universal Broadband Access, KMI Research forecasts that the total FTTP market for equipment, cable, and apparatus will reach $3.2 billion in 2009. This represents a 54% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the forecast period. Verizon’s announcement and commitment to pass one million homes in 2004 has made FTTP the fiberoptics industry’s most exciting development since the late 1990s.

The amount of cabled-fiber demand used in FTTP and fiber in the loop (FITL) applications in the U.S. will contribute to a 19% CAGR for the total U.S. single-mode cable market from 2003 through 2009. FITL-related fiber deployments in 2003 were less than 10% of total U.S. single-mode cabled-fiber demand but will account for more than 40% in 2009.

In 2003, there was a fledgling fiber to the home, or FTTP, market underway, consisting of approximately 100 different projects—the majority of which were undertaken by municipalities, utility companies, real-estate developers, and other “non-telco” organizations. In 2003, the telcos contributed only 3% to the FTTP market for cable and equipment. But with the ramp-up in KMI’s forecast, the telcos’ deployments will grow much faster than the non-telcos’ deployments. Telcos will represent 70% of this market in 2009.

One factor affecting the FTTP market’s development is the distinction between homes passed and homes subscribing. KMI’s report discusses the “take rate” (the percentage of homes passed that become subscribers) with the understanding that FTTP is one of several competing technologies. CATV and DSL also compete for broadband access services. KMI’s forecast is based on a conservative take rate in the initial years, but it ramps up to higher levels towards the end of the five-year forecast period. These high-volume deployments, led by Verizon and other LECs, affect the market for equipment, cable, and apparatus.


KMI’s report provides a thorough overview of FTTP in the United States. The report includes forecasts for equipment, cable/apparatus, by network architecture, and cabled-fiber installations by loop segment through 2009. It also includes market information on active and passive equipment, components, cable and apparatus, as well as installation products, capital equipment, and service providers. It contains detailed analysis of FTTP costs, market forecasts, segment descriptions, background and discussion, carrier and manufacturer profiles.


About KMI Research
KMI Research provides market research and strategic consulting services for the optical networking industry. KMI is a Research Unit of PennWell Corporation's Advanced Technology Division. PennWell is a leading media company with over 45 publications in the technology, industrial, and power industries. For more information about KMI Research, visit www.kmiresearch.com. For more information about PennWell, visit www.pennwell.com.

CONTACT: Patrick Fay, KMI Research
pfay@kmiresearch.com
Voice 401.243.8121, Fax 401.351.0564

One Richmond Square
Suite, 303N
Providence, RI 02906

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